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  • Publication | 2026
Somalia - Country Climate and Development Report

Despite facing a complex fragility crisis, Somalia has made important progress in state-building and economic recovery, including macroeconomic stabilization, completing the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) process, joining the East African Community (EAC), and elaborating ambitious development objectives to become a middle-income country by 2060. But growth has been constrained by repeated devastating climate disasters, and future climate impacts will intensify and multiply. Mutually reinforcing climate and security crises in rural areas drive unplanned migration to urban areas, displacing vulnerability and driving further social fragility. The challenges are daunting, but not insurmountable. Quality growth could roughly halve the macroeconomic impacts of climate change impacts, and targeted, cost-effective adaptation measures could halve them again. Governance, development, and climate challenges must be addressed in unison. Breaking linkages in the vicious cycle of climate vulnerability and social fragility, and shifting from recurrent expenditure on aid and recovery to sustainable investment, can establish a virtuous cycle of resilience and development. Somalia faces twin climate adaptation challenges: moderating the most severe climate impacts while also supporting growth and diversification into more resilient sectors. To reduce rural vulnerability, which drives displacement, economic dislocation, and social fracturing, it needs to improve disaster risk management (DRM) and resilient rural livelihood systems, and invest in climate-smart cities that capture the growth and diversification potentials of urbanization. In the short term, the government of Somalia will remain highly dependent on external funding and needs to improve the efficiency of its expenditure for resilient development outcomes. To escape dependency on uncertain foreign assistance in the longer term, it will need to extend government climate leadership from coordination to direct implementation and financing, and leverage private sector action.