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  • Publication | 2026
Future Cropland Exposure to Drought Frequency Under Climate Change and Land-Use Scenarios in Nigeria
Global Food and Nutrition Security

The impacts of drought on agriculture are well documented, but their specific effects on cropland area remain underexplored. This study evaluates how projected changes in drought frequency (DF) may influence Nigeria’s cropland area from 2020 to 2099, relative to the historical baseline (1975–2014). An ensemble of climate projections was used to assess DF impacts for the near term (2020–2059) and far term (2060–2099) under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. Results show a general increase in cropland area of up to 0.046% across Nigeria, except in the northeastern and southern regions, where decreases of 5,391–7,189 km² are projected under SSP126. In the near future, SSP245 and SSP585 indicate cropland increase between 43,135 km² and 44,933 km², respectively. However, in the far future under SSP585, cropland exposure to DF may decrease by 220,000–650,000 km². crop land exposed to DF will increase significantly under SSP126 and SSP245, potentially covering up to 750,000 km², posing serious risks to food security. These findings highlight the need for adaptive strategies, including drought-resistant crops, improved water management, and sustainable land-use practices.