Indonesia’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. Real GDP growth held at 5.0 percent year-on-year over the first three quarters of 2025, supported by robust investment and a notable, albeit temporary, contribution from net exports, which benefited from front-loaded goods trade and rising global demand for commodities, particularly palm oil, iron, steel, and gold. Growth is relatively broad based, with services contributing the most to economic activity and agriculture substantially rebounding following favorable climate conditions and government support programs. Inflation is picking up on the back of rallying food prices but remains within the central bank’s target band. Meanwhile, financial buffers are adequate and the fiscal framework compliant with the national fiscal rules. Yet, with private consumption, traditionally the main driver for growth, softening, the durability of growth increasingly hinges on strengthening household purchasing power, including through improved job quality and policies that boosts investment returns and productivity. A calibrated policy package can address near-term pressures while lifting medium-term prospects. Business enabling policies, which reverse declining productivity growth and mobilize private capital into high-value investment, remain core to creating good jobs. In tandem, supply-side measures can start upskilling the future labor force. Targeted interventions to ease skills mismatches and improve job quality are essential: strengthening labor market information systems, expanding active labor market policies with a focus on lifelong learning and digital upskilling, and improving school-to-work transitions, especially for youth and women, will raise employability and support middle-class job creation. On fiscal policy, a bolder revenue strategy, centered on quick wins in tax administration and digitalization, broadening the tax base through adjusted thresholds, and enhanced compliance, can create fiscal space to expand growth programs in infrastructure, human capital, and climate resilience. On finance, well-designed, timebound credit guarantees and risk-sharing facilities, underpinned by robust digital credit infrastructure, can catalyze lending to viable MSMEs and tradable sectors, help translate monetary easing into investment, and crowd in private capital with modest fiscal outlays. Taken together, these measures can sustain Indonesia’s resilience and gradually lift potential growth, ensuring that more households experience tangible welfare gains as the economy navigates a more uncertain global environment.
| Geographic coverage | Indonesia |
| Originally published | 29 Jan 2026 |
| Related organisation(s) | World Bank |
| Knowledge service | Metadata | Global Food and Nutrition Security | Food crises and food and nutrition security | Food price crisis |
| Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET) | policymakingdigital technologyprice of agricultural produceeconomic developmentinflationRice |