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  • Publication | 2025
A global analysis of policy patterns across divergent food security trajectories under food-price inflation: Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025
Global Food and Nutrition Security

This paper analyzes food security outcomes under food price inflation across 154 countries from 2015-2023, examining how different policy landscapes shape heterogeneous responses. Using group-based trajectory modeling, we identify distinct patterns in the co-evolution of food price inflation and food insecurity across four baseline food security groups.

Countries with similar inflation pressures experienced dramatically different food security trajectories – some improved despite high inflation while others deteriorated even under moderate inflation. Association rule mining identifies distinct policy patterns across different trajectories. Countries with improving or stable food security outcomes showed more consistent policy approaches, including trade-oriented measures in lower food insecurity settings and production support measures in higher food insecurity contexts. Countries with deteriorating outcomes displayed more varied policy combinations. The analysis suggests that policy effectiveness may depend on baseline food security conditions, with certain trade policies showing different associations across contexts. The findings provide a foundation for future research investigating causal relationships between specific policy configurations and food security outcomes under inflationary pressures.