The Government-controlled areas in Yemen continue to face a rapidly worsening situation compared to the same period last year. Approximately 4.95 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between May and August 2025, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Alarmingly, over 1.5 million people (15 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing critical levels of food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). All 118 analysed districts are now classified in Crisis or worse, including 41 districts currently classified in Phase 4. This reflects an increase of 29 districts in Phase 4 from the last projection analysis ending in February 2025. 

The combined impact of ongoing economic decline, rising food and fuel costs, conflict, anticipated floods in July 2025, and a delayed planting season continue to drive high levels of acute food insecurity. Critically, In the period of May to August 2024, Humanitarian Food Security Assistance (HFSA) reached approximately 3.6 million people. In May 2025, this number dropped to 2.8 million people and no HFSA is expected to be available from July 2025 onwards. This reduction in emergency food aid and livelihood support following donor funding cuts eliminated a vital safety net that had been preventing alarming levels of acute food insecurity.

In the projection period (September 2025 to February 2026), food security is expected to worsen further, with over half of the population (5.38 million people) likely to face IPC Phase 3 or above, marking an increase of 420,000 people compared to the May to August 2025 period. This deterioration is anticipated due to the expected further reduction in HFSA, the intensification of the macro-economic crisis, and the continued upward trajectory of currency collapse and food prices reaching unprecedented levels. In the case of an intensification of conflict and lower-than-expected HFSA levels in the current period, portions of population already in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) could slide into IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe).