The workshop explored the potential impact in the year to come of emerging trends and challenges in third countries on migratory flows along the Central Mediterranean and Western African and Atlantic Routes. To do so, the event piloted innovative solutions to collect and analyse qualitative information for anticipation and early warning purposes, supporting the implementation of the Pact on Migration and Asylum.

A diverse group of stakeholders shared their knowledge on selected third countries relevant for the two migratory routes, and engaged in an interactive ‘sense making’ exercise on the observed signals of change. Participants included IOM staff, European Migration Liaison Officers (EMLOs), the European External Action Service (EEAS), representatives from Commission DGs (such as DG HOME and DG MENA), the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).

Anticipation and preparedness are central to EU migration management policies. The Migration Preparedness and Crisis Blueprint (Blueprint Network), coordinated by DG HOME, provides an operational framework for monitoring and anticipating migration flows to support the EU’s emergency and crisis response.

Within this context, the JRC is working closely with DG HOME to develop an early warning system, strengthening the Commission’s capacity to act proactively.