Africa is at a pivotal moment in its journey toward achieving sustainable agricultural development, food security, and climate resilience. Agriculture, which employs over 60% of the continent’s population, plays a critical role in economic growth and poverty reduction. Yet, Africa’s food systems are under pressure from multiple challenges, including widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, environmental degradation, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite two decades of significant advancements through the implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the continent faces complex issues that demand a more transformative and systemic approach to agricultural development. The latest Africa Union 4th CAADP Biennial Review Report shows that none of the Member States are on-track towards achieving the CAADP Malabo commitments by 2025. The continent is doing particularly poorly on the ending hunger commitment, with none of the countries on-track towards achieving access to agriculture inputs and technologies, agricultural productivity, and food security and nutrition. The 2024 Africa Food Systems Forum (AFSF) saw a greater commitment from global leaders, Africa Heads of States, private sector, civil society, and international organizations to scale up investment in the transformation of Africa’s food systems to ensure food and nutrition security in Africa while creating jobs and opportunities youth and women. The year also saw intensification of engagements around the Post-Malabo discussion which have seen a strategic shift towards as a broader agri-food systems approach.

The upcoming Kampala Declaration in January 2025 will see the launch of the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035), which introduces a shift from a traditional focus on agricultural production to a broader agri-food systems transformation approach. This strategy aligns with the goals of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, addressing the critical intersections of food production, climate change, and sustainable development. To operationalize this ambitious agenda at the country level, the development of tailored Country Theory of Change (ToC) frameworks is essential. These frameworks will serve as blueprints for aligning national food systems transformation strategies with broader regional goals under CAADP, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Agenda 2063.

Through funding from the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been working in collaboration with AGRA on a project aimed at strengthening the coherence of food systems indicators and outcomes of the CAADP BR processes. The work seeks to address gaps and mismatches between UN Food Systems Summit priorities and existing CAADP BR process, with an exploration of how new or existing instruments can inform development of a more comprehensive set of food systems indicators to be integrated into the CAADP process. The goal is to enhance food systems thinking among African decision makers. The project has been working towards fostering greater coordination and integration of food systems indicators into national agendas, piloting this initiative in Ethiopia, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Rwanda. This endeavor is not just about numbers and frameworks; it is expected to empower policymakers, guide crucial policy decisions, and enhance the tracking of Africa’s journey towards sustainable and resilient food systems.

This policy brief outlines the critical importance of developing country-specific Theories of Change (ToCs) for transforming food systems across Africa, drawing on insights from country experiences and lessons from the IDRC project. Robust ToCs provide an important framework for guiding country food system transformation efforts and strengthening coherence of food systems indicators and outcomes. They also allow for a greater appreciation of the trade-offs and synergies across multiple and often competing goals, as well as interlinkages across critical sectors. By focusing on key outcomes such as food security, economic inclusion, and environmental sustainability, the Country ToCs will align national efforts with the broader objectives of the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan (2026- 2035), ensuring that Africa can meet its developmental and climate goals in the coming decades.