Migration and climate change - Why terminology matters

This fact sheet clarifies key concepts used to describe human mobility in the context of climate change. It reviews the main terms found in policy and academic debates, highlighting differences in scope, legal status and usage. By unpacking how concepts such as climate migration, disaster displacement and trapped populations are defined, the publication supports more precise and consistent policy discussions.

Forecasting climate migration - How much do we really know? 

This fact sheet reviews the main approaches used to forecast climate-related migration and displacement and the results they produce. It shows how estimates vary widely depending on modelling methodology, population and the types of mobility considered, resulting in markedly different projections. The analysis highlights why forecasts should be interpreted with caution and identifies priorities for strengthening the evidence base for policy. 

Climate change as a driver of migration and displacement - Exploring linkages

Climate-related factors often intersect with economic, social and political dynamics, making it difficult to isolate climate change as the cause of migration or displacement. This fact sheet examines the pathways through which climate pressures influence mobility outcomes and the conditions under which these effects are more or less pronounced. It highlights the multicausal nature of climate-related mobility and the implications for evidence-based policy.

Slow and sudden-onset climate events and migration 

As climate change continues to reshape environments across the globe, both sudden disasters, like floods, cyclones, and wildfires, and slow-onset crises such as droughts, sea level rise, and land degradation are driving complex patterns of human mobility.
This fact sheet highlights how these climate events not only trigger large-scale displacement but also create conditions of involuntary immobility, calling for policies that strengthen local adaptation, resilience, and recovery to ensure migration remains a choice rather than a necessity.

Narratives – How is climate migration portrayed?

This factsheet highlights that many common portrayals, often alarmist or overly simplified, fail to reflect the complex realities linking climate change, migration and displacement.

Strengthening communication between scientists, policymakers, organisations, and the media is essential to ensure evidence- based discourse. By promoting balanced language and strategic framing, the factsheet calls for narratives that inform sound policy rather than fuel misconceptions or fear.

Forthcoming Science for Policy Briefs – March 2026

Emergency Preparedness, Disaster Displacement and Climate

 Migration 
This policy brief examines how emergency preparedness influences climate-related mobility outcomes,including evacuation, displacement and involuntary immobility. It analyses the role of anticipation, early warning, evacuation planning and recovery systems in shaping whether people can move safely and return quickly after hazards. The brief identifies policy priorities to strengthen preparedness in line with the EU Preparedness Union Strategy.

Climate security, migration and fragility 

This policy brief analyses the growing convergence between climate change, fragility and human mobility. It examines how climate stress can act as a risk multiplier, shaping migration and displacement through its effects on livelihoods, governance and security conditions. The brief identifies priorities to strengthen resilience and reduce displacement risks in fragile contexts.