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Knowledge4Policy
Knowledge for policy
Supporting policy with scientific evidence

We mobilise people and resources to create, curate, make sense of and use knowledge to inform policymaking across Europe.

  • Projects and activities | Last updated: 24 Mar 2026
Climate Migration and Displacement

The JRC is producing a series of fact sheets and policy briefs on climate migration and displacement to support EU policymaking. The series distils current evidence on key concepts, methods and narratives, and will be completed with additional publications over the coming months. The series is developed by the JRC with input from the Migration Research to Policy Co-Lab.

Migration and Demography

Brief me

Child looking at a drying see
(© @ piyaset - stock.adobe.com)

Overview

Climate change-related factors can influence migration and displacement, but rarely in isolation. They interact with economic, social, demographic and political drivers, making causal attribution and forecasting inherently difficult. While public narratives often emphasise large-scale international movements, most climate-related mobility tends to be internal and short distance, and in some contexts climate change is associated with involuntary immobility. This page brings together JRC publications that synthesise evidence on these questions in formats designed for rapid policy use. 

What we do

The JRC produces a series of concise fact sheets and policy briefs on climate migration and displacement, each focused on a specific topic. The publications synthesise current evidence, clarify key concepts and highlight policy-relevant implications and limitations in a format designed for rapid use by policymakers.

Alongside these accessible outputs, the JRC has developed more technical analyses that deepen the evidence base and inform policy discussions. This work has supported key initiatives, including the 2024 Policy Lab on “Climate-related Disasters, Displacement and Migration”.

Outputs are released on a rolling basis, covering areas such as terminology, forecasting, attribution, narratives and preparedness. The series will be consolidated into a Science for Policy report bringing together the main findings and policy messages.

Fact sheets and policy briefs

Migration and climate change - Why terminology matters

This fact sheet clarifies key concepts used to describe human mobility in the context of climate change. It reviews the main terms found in policy and academic debates, highlighting differences in scope, legal status and usage. By unpacking how concepts such as climate migration, disaster displacement and trapped populations are defined, the publication supports more precise and consistent policy discussions.

 

Recurring Lexicon for Climate Change-Related Migration.

 

 

Forecasting climate migration - How much do we really know? 

This fact sheet reviews the main approaches used to forecast climate-related migration and displacement and the results they produce. It shows how estimates vary widely depending on modelling methodology, population and the types of mobility considered, resulting in markedly different projections. The analysis highlights why forecasts should be interpreted with caution and identifies priorities for strengthening the evidence base for policy. 

Climate migration forecasts

Climate change as a driver of migration and displacement - Exploring linkages?

Climate-related factors often intersect with economic, social and political dynamics, making it difficult to isolate climate change as the cause of migration or displacement. This fact sheet examines the pathways through which climate pressures influence mobility outcomes and the conditions under which these effects are more or less pronounced. It highlights the multicausal nature of climate-related mobility and the implications for evidence-based policy.

How climate factors lead to migration patterns

Slow and sudden-onset climate events and migration 

As climate change continues to reshape environments across the globe, both sudden disasters, like floods, cyclones, and wildfires, and slow-onset phenomena such as droughts, sea level rise, and land degradation are driving complex patterns of human mobility.
This fact sheet highlights how these climate events not only trigger large-scale displacement but also create conditions of involuntary immobility, calling for policies that strengthen local adaptation, resilience, and recovery to ensure migration remains a choice rather than a necessity.

Narratives – How is climate migration portrayed?

This fact sheet highlights that many common portrayals, often alarmist or overly simplified, fail to reflect the complex realities linking climate change, migration and displacement.  

Strengthening communication between scientists, policymakers, organisations and the media is essential to ensure evidence-based discourse. By promoting balanced language and strategic framing, the factsheet calls for narratives that inform sound policy rather than fuel misconceptions or fear. 

Forthcoming Science for Policy Briefs

Emergency Preparedness, Disaster Displacement and Climate

Migration 
This policy brief examines how emergency preparedness influences climate-related mobility outcomes,including evacuation, displacement and involuntary immobility. It analyses the role of anticipation, early warning, evacuation planning and recovery systems in shaping whether people can move safely and return quickly after hazards. The brief identifies policy priorities to strengthen preparedness in line with the EU Preparedness Union Strategy.

Climate security, migration and fragility 

 

Gradual and rapid climate events

 

 

 

 

Prevailing narratives about climate migration

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This policy brief analyses the growing convergence between climate change, fragility and human mobility. It examines how climate stress can act as a risk multiplier, shaping migration and displacement through its effects on livelihoods, governance and security conditions. The brief identifies priorities to strengthen resilience and reduce displacement risks in fragile contexts.

Migration aspirations worldwide. The risk of combined conflict and climate shocks.
This policy brief summarises the results of a recent scientific research that combines different data sources and a detailed geographic approach to explore the combined impact of conflict and climatic factors on individual desires to move abroad.

Related past work
Climate Change Induced Migration (CLICIM) | Knowledge for policy

The Link between Disaster Displacement and Migration Intentions

Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation

Global estimates of net migration at high spatial resolution 1975-2020

Latest knowledge from this Project