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Lebanon: Acute Food Insecurity Projection Update for April - August 2026

  • Publication | 2026

The food security situation in Lebanon has worsened following the drastic escalation in hostilities and widespread displacement that began in early March 2026. Around 1.24 million people are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and August 2026, which is worse than was previously projected for this period in the IPC analysis released in October 2025. The declining food security conditions are experienced among all population groups and reverses any improvements observed in the previous reporting period.

The biggest increases in populations in Phase 3 or above are found in the southern governorates, particularly in Bent Jbeil, Marjaayoun, El Nabatieh and Sour districts, among both Lebanese and Syrian refugee populations. In these areas, high levels of acute food insecurity are affecting 55 to 65 percent of the population, including approximately 10 percent of people who are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). 

The decline is primarily driven by renewed conflict and large-scale displacement, disruption to livelihoods and income opportunities, localised market disruption in conflict-affected areas, rising food and fuel prices, and an expected reduction in humanitarian food assistance coverage. Beyond the direct impact of the escalation in Lebanon, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to place further pressure on fuel and transport costs, import prices, remittance inflows, fertiliser and agricultural input costs, and overall market confidence, with spillover effects on household purchasing power and economic access to food across the country.

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