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  • Publication | 2026
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions - Implications for Global Trade and Development

This brief by the United Nation Conference on Trade and Development (UNCAD) analysis the impacts of the recent military escalation in the Persian Gulf area on global trade, including on food and fertilisers, focusing on the disruptions caused by the dramatic decrease of maritime transport through the strait of Hormuz, as of 10 March 2026.   

Key figures and messages:

  • In the last week of February 2026, just before the conflict started, the shares of global seaborne trade volume passing through the strait of Hormuz were 38% for crude oil, 29% for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), 19% for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), 13% for chemicals (including mineral fertilises) and 2% for dry bulk, including grains; 

  • As of March 10, 2026, the number of ships transiting through the strait dropped from 129 per day (average on the period 1-27 February) to 4, i.e. -97%; 

  • Asia was the main destination of crude oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) transiting through the Strait of Hormuz (84% and 83% respectively); around 5% of crude oil and 13% of LNG volumes transiting through the strait were bound for Europe; 

  • Between February 27 and March 9 2026, the international prices of crude oil and LNG increased sharply, by 27% and 74% respectively; 

  • In 2024, one third of global seaborne trade in fertilizers passes through the Strait of Hormuz; of this, the great majority is urea (67%), followed by Diammonium phosphate (DAP) and Monoammonium phosphate (MAP); 

  • Several countries in Africa and Asia are highly dependent on fertilizers imported by sea and originating from the Persian Gulf: examples include Sudan (54%), Sri Lanka (36%), Tanzania (31%), Somalia (30%), Pakistan (27%), Kenya (26%); 

  • There’s a strong correlation between the price of oil and the price of food, as well as between the price of gas and the price of fertilisers 

  • The disruptions are resulting in rises in transportation prices due to longer routes, more expensive fuel, and higher insurance costs 

  • In developing economies reliant on imports, rising energy, transport, and food costs could strain public finances, increase household budget pressures, and hinder progress toward sustainable development