More than one-fifth of the analysed population in Pakistan is facing high levels of acute food insecurity due to the residual impacts of the 2025 monsoon floods, prolonged drought and dry spells, and localised insecurity. Approximately 7.5 million people (21 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between December 2025 and March 2026. This includes around 1.25 million people experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), characterised by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 6.3 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) are unable to meet their essential food requirements and forced to resort to unstainable coping measures. Immediate, life-saving assistance is needed to prevent a further deterioration and to prevent affected populations—particularly those in Phase 4—from facing catastrophic conditions.

Between April and September 2026, the number of people in Phase 3 or above is expected to slightly decrease to 6.7 million (19 percent of the analysed rural population), representing a reduction of about 855,000 people facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Across the analysed districts, about 570,000 people are expected to be in Phase 4, while approximately 6.12 million people will likely be in Phase 3. Compared to the same season of the previous year, when approximately 10 million people were classified in Phase 3 or above, the projected population appears lower. This should not be interpreted as an improvement in food security conditions. The apparent decline is largely driven by reduced geographic coverage, as the 2026 projection covers 45 districts, compared to 68 districts in the 2025 projection. When assessed proportionally, the share of the analysed population facing Crisis or worse conditions remains broadly similar, at around 19 percent in the current projection, compared to 20 percent in the previous year.

The IPC acute food insecurity analysis in Pakistan covers 45 vulnerable rural districts in Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These areas face widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, and poverty. Together, they are home to an estimated 35.6 million people—about 23 percent of the country’s rural population and 14 percent of its total population.