Skip to main content
Knowledge4Policy
Knowledge for policy
Supporting policy with scientific evidence

We mobilise people and resources to create, curate, make sense of and use knowledge to inform policymaking across Europe.

  • Publication | 2025
Curse or cure: China’s growing food demand and its impact on African agricultural exports and value-added
Global Food and Nutrition Security

Highlights:

  • China’s food demand boosts African agricultural exports but not value-added growth.
  • Export growth shifts to high-value crops, yet value-added share declines.
  • Limited production capacity in Africa hinders industrial upgrading in exports.
  • Enhancing production capacity is key to sustainable agricultural export growth.
  • Leveraging CGIAR can drive technological progress for Africa’s export potential.

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of China’s growing food demand on African agricultural exports, emphasizing value-added and implications for development. Using a gravity model with panel data from 41 African countries’ exports to China (1992–2021), we analyze effects on total exports, value-added, and unit value-added through decomposition analysis. Results indicate that China’s demand significantly increases African exports, enhancing global value chain integration, yet minimally boosts value-added. A 1% increase in China’s food consumption (from 3.9 trillion kcal/day or approximately 8.85 million tonne) increases exports by US$ 2.79 million but reduces per unit value-added in exports from 19.2% to 15.6%, a loss of US$ 0.50 million. Limited production capacity, not low-value export reliance, constrains industry upgrading. Leveraging international cooperation and domestic policy reform to advance technology and capacity is critical for African nations to unlock sustainable export growth and resilient agricultural development.