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  • Publication | 2026
Impact of two decades of humanitarian and development assistance and the projected mortality consequences of current defunding to 2030: retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis
Global Food and Nutrition Security

Highlights:

This publication evaluates the impact of official development assistance (ODA) on mortality across 93 low- and middle-income countries, covering 6.3 billion people over two decades.

Countries with higher ODA per capita saw:

  • 23% lower all-cause mortality
  • 39% lower under-5 mortality
  • 33% lower infant mortality

The strongest effects were in preventable, poverty-linked causes of death:

  • HIV/AIDS: 70% mortality
  • Malaria: 56%
  • Malnutrition: 56%
  • Neglected tropical diseases: 54%
  • Large reductions also seen for TB, diarrhoeal disease, maternal and perinatal causes

If current defunding accelerates:

  • 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030
  • Including 5.4 million children under five

Even a “mild” continuation of recent cuts implies:

  • 9.4 million excess deaths
  • 2.5 million child deaths by 2030