High rates of diseases, poor health systems, inadequate food consumption, and insecurity linked to armed conflict, insurgency, and clashes between farmers and herders are driving high levels of acute malnutrition in Nigeria. Nearly 6.4 million children aged 0–59 months are suffering, and are expected to continue suffering, from acute malnutrition through September 2026, including 2 million with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM). In the same period, nearly 786,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) will also be affected and require treatment. The October 2025 IPC AMN analysis covered 204 local government areas (LGAs) across the northeast, northwest, and north central regions—where 37 percent of LGAs are classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) or Phase 4 (Critical).

The situation is most severe in the northeast, particularly in Borno and Yobe, where 18 LGAs are in Phase 4 and 13 in Phase 3. In the northwest, two LGAs (Mashi and Jibia) are in Phase 4, 44 in Phase 3, and 59 in Phase 2, with Sokoto and Kebbi being the worst affected states. In north central Benue, all LGAs and the two internally displaced persons (IDP) camps are classified as either Phase 1 or Phase 2. The key drivers fuelling the situation across the analysed regions include high rates of disease, weak health systems, inadequate food consumption, and insecurity linked to armed conflict, insurgency, and clashes between farmers and herders.

In the first projection period (October–December 2025), 86 percent of LGAs—including the two IDP camps—are expected to remain in their current Phases, with improvements anticipated in seven LGAs from Phase 4 to 3 and 15 LGAs from Phase 3 to 2. However, the situation is projected to deteriorate significantly during the peak malnutrition season (May–September 2026). The number of LGAs in Phase 4 is expected to rise from 13 to 33, with 20 LGAs shifting from Phase 3 to 4, 59 LGAs plus one IDP camp worsening from Phase 2 to 3, and 26 LGAs plus one IDP camp deteriorating from Phase 1 to 2.