A chapter of the Atlas of Migration 2025, dedicated to conflict-related displacement, illustrates how violence and fragility shape mobility patterns within and beyond national borders.

The chapter shows that displacement is rarely driven by a single event. Instead, it emerges from a combination of factors, such as security threats, economic pressures, access to borders and social networks — all  mediated by individuals’ capacity and aspirations to move.

Using data from six major displacement situations - Myanmar, Palestine, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine and Venezuela - the chapter highlights the diversity of displacement outcomes.

Some countries, such as Sudan and Myanmar, see very high numbers of internally displaced people, whereas others, like Venezuela, experience large cross-border movements.

These differences illustrate that similar levels of violence can lead to very different mobility patterns depending on local conditions. 

Factors that shape displacement outcomes

The authors identify five key dimensions that shape displacement outcomes.

First, proximity matters. People tend to move to safe areas within their country, if possible, but if violence is widespread and there are no safe zones, they are more likely to become refugees. The proximity of borders and the ease of reaching them also influence displacement outcomes.

Second, longer conflicts tend to generate more displacement, both internally and across borders. Protracted conflicts can lead to a "displacement continuum," where people become internally displaced persons first and refugees later.

This was the case in Syria and Afghanistan, where long conflicts have led to multiple displacement episodes, with people moving from one place to another within their country and then across borders.

Third, the role of the state and non-state actors in displacement is crucial. In Venezuela, the state's authoritarian drift and economic collapse have led to a large refugee-like situation, while in Colombia, the state's presence has allowed many people to flee from non-state armed groups to safer areas within the country.

Fourth, legal pathways, access to neighbouring countries, and the possibility to cross borders influence displacement outcomes.

For example, Venezuelans have been able to move to neighbouring countries with relative ease due to regional asylum and regularisation policies, while Ukrainians have been able to move to EU countries thanks to the EU's Temporary Protection Directive. In contrast, Palestinians in Gaza are trapped within the Strip due to tight border controls.

Fifth, a person's economic resources and social connections play a significant role in determining whether they become refugees, internally displaced persons or remain trapped in their homes. 
 

Policy implications

The researchers identify several policy measures to prevent, prepare and respond to conflict-related displacement. These include integrated monitoring systems to track violence, economic conditions and border policies, enabling earlier warnings and better forecasting. They also call for safe mobility pathways, such as humanitarian visas, regional agreements and complementary pathways, to support safe and regular movements.

The authors emphasise the need for improved displacement data, particularly in under-documented contexts, and for funding approaches tailored to the duration of displacement, with a shift towards development support in protracted crises.

They further highlight the importance of responding to localised displacement near conflict zones, supporting circular mobility, and overcoming information gaps through independent media and satellite connectivity. Overall, they advocate for flexible, context-specific policies that reflect local conditions, host country capacity and the profiles of displaced populations.

Atlas of Migration - harmonised reference tool for understanding migration

The Atlas of Migration, developed by the JRC to support evidence-based policymaking, provides a harmonised, easy-to-use overview of migration trends across the 27 EU Member States and 171 countries and territories worldwide.

Drawing on trusted sources such as Eurostat, UNDESA, UNHCR, IDMC and the World Bank, the Atlas offers comparable data presented through clear visuals and concise explanations.

It is designed to support policymakers, analysts and practitioners working on migration, asylum, foreign policy and humanitarian response.

Help shape the future of migration data: share your views for the new Atlas of Migration.

The JRC is working on a new digital version of the Atlas, to be launched in December 2026.

The new digital version aims to support policymakers by providing more timely data and analysis.

To ensure that the new platform meets the needs of its users, the JRC has launched a survey to gather feedback from users who rely on migration data.

Fill in the survey to share your views on the availability and usability of migration data, as well as the various functions of the current Atlas of Migration.

Your input will help the JRC create a more user-friendly and effective tool.