Southern Africa. As harvest is nearing completion for the main crop season, preliminary reports suggest good production prospects in most parts of southern Africa, reflecting the favourable rainfall conditions since January. South Africa, the main cereal producer in the region, is expecting a 15 % increase in maize output compared with last year’s reduced production, however it still remains slightly below the 5-year average (ca.3%) (Crop Estimates Committee). Another significant maize supplier in the region, Zambia, has forecast its maize output at 3 655 million tonnes, up from 1 500 million tonnes last year and ca.25% above the 5-year average (Zambia Statistics Agency). Similarly, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe are also expecting harvests that surpass last year’s poor outputs. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s regional round-up report (June 2025), ‘Estimated upturns in cereal production across most of the subregion are supporting steep seasonal price declines in several countries’. The good rainfall conditions during the second part of the season (January–March 2025) were also beneficial for pasture and livestock conditions in most countries in the region.

East Africa. At the end of the first crop season in bimodal areas, in most cases crop yield expectations have improved as compared to low early-season expectations based on seasonal weather forecasts. The main exceptions are areas in eastern Ethiopia and in central and western Uganda, which experienced poor rainfall in April. Rangeland conditions are also mostly above average for this season, with exceptions in north-western Ethiopia and along the border between Sudan and South Sudan. Rainfall onset in unimodal areas started in June, but with below-average performance, leading to a delay in crop growth in north-western Ethiopia, in the north-western part of South Sudan and in the southern states of Sudan. The ongoing lean season will see increases in food insecurity, especially in areas affected by conflict in Sudan and South Sudan and in others experiencing protracted tensions, like parts of northern and central Ethiopia. In South Sudan, conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities, exacerbating severe food insecurity driven by economic instability and an inflow of refugees from Sudan. Sudan remains the region’s most critical hotspot, contributing about 65 % of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development caseload. Nearly 700 000 people were projected to be in catastrophe (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) phase 5) in early 2025, and the upcoming lean season, combined with humanitarian funding cuts, might further increase these numbers. Acute food insecurity therefore remains alarmingly high across the region, with over 41 million people across six Intergovernmental Authority on Development member states – Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda – in IPC phase 3 or worse.

 

West and central Africa. Crop conditions are generally favourable in the bimodal southern parts of the region, as crops have received sufficient water for their development. June marks the onset of the main season across the Sahel, and early rainfall has been average except for a rainfall deficit in the last month in eastern Burkina Faso, northern Cameroon, southern Chad and southern Mali. A delayed start of the season and below-average crop conditions were observed in June in eastern Burkina Faso, northern Cameroon, southern Chad and central and northern Nigeria. It is still early in the season to tell whether this will have a negative impact on seasonal production. Close monitoring will be necessary in the coming weeks. The Copernicus Climate Change Service multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for July–August 2025 indicates above-average rainfall in most parts of the Sahel and drier-than-average conditions across the central and southern parts of the Gulf of Guinea and western parts of the region. According to a recent report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Requirements Overview – Sahel, ‘Ongoing conflicts in the Central Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, and northern Nigeria have led to large-scale displacement, disrupting agricultural activities and restricting food availability. These persistent crises have eroded livelihoods, increasing dependency on humanitarian aid.’
 

Middle East and North Africa. In the Middle East, the harvest of winter wheat and barley was completed in Iraq and Syria and is under way in Iran, with mixed prospects as a result of the dry conditions since the start of season, aggravated by high temperatures since March: they are very poor in Syria, with crop biomass at its lowest level since 2002 in northern Syria, close to average in Iraq as a result of poor yields in the north and good yields in central and southern Iraq, and close to average as well in Iran, where yields are expected to be average to above average in the north-west and west (thanks to irrigation) and poor in the north-east. In Yemen, the harvest of irrigated wheat has finished in the central and northern highlands, with average prospects, as suggested by close-to-average crop biomass. Also in the central and northern highlands, sorghum and millet are in the early vegetative growth stage under below-average moisture conditions, but the rainy season is expected to start in July. In Yemen, food is mainly imported and food insecurity continues to affect 17 million out of 30 million people as a result of the poor socioeconomic conditions. In North Africa, the harvest of winter cereals has finished (Morocco, Tunisia) or is under way (Algeria), and prospects vary from close to average in Algeria to poor in Morocco and above average in Tunisia. Western Algeria and all of Morocco have suffered from very dry conditions since the start of the season, and, despite improved rainfall in March and April, the recovery of winter cereals for grain production is unlikely. In contrast, the north-eastern and central parts of Algeria and all of Tunisia have benefited from better rainfall, and above-average output is expected.
 

Central and South Asia and North Korea. In central Asia (most of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), the harvest of winter cereals is under way with average to above-average production prospects despite irregular and below-average rainfall since November/December and above-average temperatures since April. In southern Kazakhstan and northern Kyrgyzstan, above-average temperatures combined with dry conditions have accelerated grain maturation, and winter wheat yield prospects are below average. In contrast, in northern and central Kazakhstan, spring wheat is growing under favourable moisture conditions. In Afghanistan, the harvest of winter wheat, which is mostly irrigated, has finished, with good prospects except in the north-west (Jawzjan, Faryab) and Samangan in the north, while spring cereals are growing in a context of below-average rainfall since April and temperatures up to 6 °C above average. Acute food insecurity continues to affect one person out of two as a result of the economic and social crises. In South Asia, the planting of kharif crops in Pakistan and of aus and aman rice in Bangladesh started in both countries under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, the biomass conditions for second-season yala rice are good, pointing to a favourable harvest beginning in August. In North Korea, rainfall was abundant from April to June, which could have negatively affected the wheat and barley harvests in June but was beneficial to the growth of maize and rice.

Latin America and the Caribbean islands. In Central America, the primera maize and bean cycles are at the end of the sowing period or in the vegetation stage. Dry conditions and above-average temperatures experienced in the second half of May in many areas have probably led to delays in sowing, and the loss of crops sown in April and beginning of May. As a result, large areas of cropland currently present poor vegetation conditions in northern Honduras and in Guatemala and Nicaragua. The situation is concerning, as the seasonal forecast indicates lower-than-normal rainfall until the end of August. Over the past month, rainfall conditions have generally supported the normal development of crops in the sowing and vegetation stages in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru. However, in key producing departments of Colombia and Haiti, and in Cuba, rainfall has been below average in the past month, compromising the progress of the recently established maize and rice cycles. In addition, in Cuba and Haiti, the Copernicus Climate Change Service seasonal forecast indicates below-normal rainfall until September, which could lead to yield reduction if the forecast is accurate. Harvest prospects are favourable in Haiti (maize) and Peru (barley, maize, rice and wheat). In Colombia (barley, rice, sorghum and wheat) and Ecuador (barley, maize, rice and wheat) harvest prospects are favourable except for Casanare, Norte de Santander and Tolima departments in Colombia and Guayas province in Ecuador, due to adverse climatic conditions among other factors.