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  • Publication | 2025

Cuts in official development assistance - OECD projections for 2025 and the near term

Global Food and Nutrition Security

Key messages:

  • The OECD projects a 9 to 17% drop in official development assistance (ODA) in 2025. This comes on top of a 9% drop in 2024. The outlook beyond 2025 remains highly uncertain.
  • The projected decline is driven by announced cuts in four major providers of ODA. For the first time in nearly 30 years, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States all cut their ODA in 2024. If they proceed with announced cuts in 2025, it will be the first time in history that all four have cut ODA simultaneously for two consecutive years.
  • ODA in 2027 is projected to fall back to 2020 levels. That said, needs continue to grow and the projected ODA cuts will impact the poorest countries and vital services hardest.
    • In 2025, least developed countries (LDCs) are projected to see a 13-25% fall in net bilateral ODA from DAC providers. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa could face a 16-28% decline.
    • Bilateral ODA for health is projected to decline by 19-33 % in 2025 over 2023 levels, marking further falls from previous high levels related to COVID-19 support. ODA for health in 2025 is projected to fall below pre-COVID-19 levels.
    • Anticipated cuts to multilateral organisations may trigger a second wave of funding decreases for the poorest countries and vital services. In 2023, nearly half of ODA to LDCs was delivered through multilateral channels. The eleven providers that have announced cuts account for between 62% (for WHO) and 87% (for WFP) of funding to key multilateral health and humanitarian agencies.
  • Co-ordinated action is critical to avoid major impacts on the countries and people most in need. Providers could:
    • Share forward plans, information, and analysis on the implications of evolving ODA levels and allocations, underpinned by data and evidence;
    • Work together, and with countries and territories that receive ODA, to find solutions to close finance gaps, and protect and sustain focus on the highest impact programmes and investments, especially for countries, sectors, and populations most in need;
  • Diversify partners, pool resources, catalyse private sector investment where appropriate, and support the mobilisation of domestic resources.