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Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

  • Publication | 2024
Global Food and Nutrition Security

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

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Authors
Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou, Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa & Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju
Publisher
Springer
Geographic coverageGlobalNigeria
Originally published

05 Feb 2025

Knowledge service | MetadataGlobal Food and Nutrition Security | Food crises and food and nutrition security | Food price crisis
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET)AgricultureModellingagricultural tradeImpact Assessmentpolicymakinghouseholdtaxwar in Ukrainelivestock
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