Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Global Food and Nutrition Security

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

Resources

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food secur…

Authors	Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou, Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa & Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju
Publisher	Springer
Geographic coverage	Global Nigeria
Available from	05 Feb 2025
Knowledge service \| Metadata	Global Food and Nutrition Security \| Food crises and food and nutrition security \| Food price crisis
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET)	Agriculture Modelling agricultural trade Impact Assessment policymaking household tax war in Ukraine livestock

Supporting policy with scientific evidence

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Territorial impact assessment workshop on 'A Strategic Framework for a Competitive and Sustainable EU Bioeconomy'

Modelling land footprint

Key resources