Skip to main content
Knowledge for policy

Supporting policy with scientific evidence

We mobilise people and resources to create, curate, make sense of and use knowledge to inform policymaking across Europe.

Publication | 30 April 2020

Security and geopolitics in a changing climate

Foresight

While the world will be strongly affected by the interplay among all the megatrends, assessing the interlinkages between Changing Security Paradigm, Climate change and environmental degradation, Aggravating Resource Scarcity, Increasing significance of migration and Growing Consumerism, offers a particularly interesting perspective of the challenges we face to ensure a peaceful future.

  • Climate change and increasing competition for natural resources are transforming security concerns, while challenging EU’s strategic autonomy.
  • The competition for rare earth elements and fertile land is intensifying, with negative consequences for the people living close to mines and land that has been grabbed.  
  • Conflicts related to natural resources and/or environmental degradation are twice as likely to return to violence within five years. 
  • Climate change displacements are mostly short-term and short-distance, rarely crossing national borders.