Key messages:

• Southern Africa is facing a looming crisis as the El Nino-induced drought impose a significant strain on the region's agricultural sector, threatening food security for millions of households.
• Due to the unfolding crisis, Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe have already declared state of disaster and put in motion efforts to mobilise resources and develop response strategies.
• To contribute to these efforts, this brief highlights the production impacts and implications on food prices, as well as import requirements, and provides some preliminary recommendations on how governments can strengthen response mechanisms to mitigate the crisis.
• Global forecasts show lower maize production from traditional exporters - South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Venezuela, and Russia. However, the Eastern Africa region is expected to have a net surplus of 1.7 million MT of maize in 2023/24 marketing year driven by enhanced rainfall and improved production. Tanzania’s exportable surplus is expected to be 36 percent above average in MY 2023/24 (1.1 million MT), while Uganda and Ethiopia will average levels (450,000, and 400,000 MT respectively). 
• While Ukraine offers grain at lower cost (approximately FOB 270 USD/ton), shipping costs to Southern Africa have increased substantially due to the attacks at the Suez Canal and continued Russia conflict. The East African region (especially Tanzania) holds a significant advantage, due to duty-free SADC and COMESA FTAs' and a good road, rail and sea transport routes between East and Southern Africa. 
• Governments should move with speed to set up coordination structures for information and logistics and engage their peers at senior level to secure the needed grain, while partnering with the private sector to handle logistics. Trade facilitation measures will be required to reduce red tape and simplify customs procedures, and exemption from some procedures that lengthen clearing of goods.