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Publication | 15 January 2021

Mozambique: Acute Food Insecurity Situation October - December 2020 and Projections for January - March 2021 and April - September 2021

Global Food and Nutrition Security

2.7 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) in rural (approx. 1.9 million) and urban (0.8 million) areas across the country between October and December 2020. The number of people facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) is estimated to increase to 2.9 million people in rural (approx. 2.1 million) and urban areas across the country (0.8 million) between January and March 2020.

From October to December 2020, the south-eastern districts of Cabo Delgado province, southern Tete province and most of the districts of Gaza and Inhambane provinces were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while the rest of the districts were classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). At the peak of the January to March 2021 lean season, all previous districts are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Dondo district in Sofala province is also expected to move to IPC Phase 3. The situation is expected to improve between April and September 2021, with 1.7 million people likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This projected improvement is due to rural households having access to food from their own production (current harvest), food prices being stable with a tendency to reduce and the impacts of COVID-19 being minimal in rural areas.

Urban and rural areas have a very similar prevalence of people in the IPC Phase 3 or above (14.6% and 14.7% respectively). The main factors leading to the increase of people in the situation of high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) from January to March 2021 are armed conflict, drought and the impact of the pandemic on economic activity.