Acute malnutrition is expected to worsen in all governorates, driven by seasonal diseases in high-density population settings alongside reduced assistance to children and pregnant and breastfeeding women. In Rafah, the deterioration is expected to reach critical level (IPC AMN Phase 4). Prioritizing children’s meals over adults, and the inflow of life-saving nutrition assistance, including blanket supplementary feeding of children with fortified, high-calorie foods have been crucial to reverse the deterioration of acute malnutrition. Nonetheless, the expected reduction of humanitarian assistance, soaring food prices, reduced access to fresh food, and the collapse of the health and WASH systems are expected to have a negative impact on the nutrition situation in the projected period. Among children aged 6 to 59 months, an estimated 60,000 cases of acute malnutrition, of which 12,000 severe cases, are expected between September 2024 and August 2025.

The risk of Famine between November 2024 and April 2025 persists as long as conflict continues, and humanitarian access is restricted. The extreme concentration of population in an ever-shrinking area, living in improvised shelters with intermittent access to humanitarian supplies and services, elevates the risk of epidemic outbreaks and deterioration into a catastrophe of unprecedented magnitude. Attacks on camps, shelters and infrastructure across the Gaza strip, as well as renewed evacuation orders in North Gaza in the past two weeks, are already increasing the likelihood of this worst-case scenario occurring.