Food security, IMO midterm measures' impact on states and revenue distribution - Analysing synergies and risks

Aims and Objectives:

• The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) mid-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction will likely lead to an increase in transport cost, possibly affecting the imported food prices.
• The report identifies countries most at risk of food security deterioration due to increased import costs.
• It further evaluates whether in-sector revenue distribution from a pricing mechanism can mitigate these food security risks, and whether out-of-sector distribution would be needed. 

Key Findings:

• Increased Transport Costs and Food Security: The transition to low-carbon shipping will likely raise transport costs, disproportionately impacting Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This increase in transport costs could affect food security of vulnerable countries in the short term, although the effects in the long term are more uncertain.
• Most Vulnerable Countries Identified: Some countries such as Papua New Guinea, Haiti, Yemen, Solomon Islands, and Liberia face the greatest risks due to a combination of food import dependence, existing food insecurity, and poverty levels. Most of the highly vulnerable countries are either SIDS or LDCs. Some, although not all, are found to be more likely to see an increase in import prices in the short term than the world’s average.
• Misalignment of Revenue Distribution and Food Security Needs: Many highly vulnerable countries which are also found more likely to see an increase in import food prices have limited capacity to absorb in-sector revenue (e.g., investments in shipping infrastructure), suggesting that restricting carbon levy revenues to the shipping sector may not effectively address food security risks. 

Implications:

• IMO’s revenue distribution discussions should consider a broad range of options for distributing revenues to member states, as limiting revenues to in-sector will not be effective at addressing this food security risk negative impact on states.
• Given that the revenues are expected to reduce in the long term as the fleet decarbonises, it may be beneficial to vulnerable countries if revenues were used to foster a long term and structural improvement of food security in recipient countries 

Methods:

• Developed a composite index to assess each country’s vulnerability to food price increases, incorporating factors such as:
  • Dependence on food imports
  • Existing food insecurity
  • Poverty levels
• Cross-referenced the vulnerability index with the IMO's Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CIA) to evaluate projected food price increases.
• Cross-referenced with the assessed countries' capacity to absorb in-sector revenue, based on factors like shipping infrastructure and existing fleet ownership.