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Supporting policy with scientific evidence

We mobilise people and resources to create, curate, make sense of and use knowledge to inform policymaking across Europe.

Publication | 2020

Extreme lows of wheat production in Brazil

1) Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events.

2) Multiple regression models were used to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, yield, and commodity prices.

3) Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat price.