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Publication | 2024

Are We Adapting to Climate Change?

This study by Stanford University used a panel data approach to estimate the impact of climate change on various outcomes, including agriculture, mortality, economic output, and conflict. The authors employed a range of econometric models to estimate the relationship between climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and outcome variables (e.g., crop yields, mortality rates). The authors also decomposed changes in total sensitivity into "changing responses" and "changing exposures" to understand the drivers of adaptation.

Key findings on impact of climate change on the agricultural sector:

The study analyzed the impact of climate change on agricultural yields in various countries, including the US, Brazil, India, and the EU. The key findings for the agricultural sector are:

* Most crops show a negative impact of warming, with some exceptions where warming at moderate temperatures has a positive effect (e.g., US soybeans).

* Limited evidence of a significant change in sensitivity over time, with some exceptions:

+ US maize and EU wheat: show a statistically significant decline in sensitivity to temperature over time.

+ Brazil maize and soybean: show a statistically significant increase in sensitivity to temperature over time.

* Changes in total sensitivity over time are driven more by changing responses than changing exposures.

* Irrigation has a mitigating effect on temperature sensitivity, but its impact is not sufficient to offset the negative effects of warming.

Overall, the study suggests that the agricultural sector is not adapting well to climate change, with most crops showing a negative impact of warming and limited evidence of a significant change in sensitivity over time.

Key findings on impact of climate change on conflict:

* The impact of temperature on conflict in Africa has increased over time, with the most recent decade showing a statistically significant increase in conflict risk compared to earlier decades.

* The relationship between temperature and conflict is linear, with higher temperatures associated with a higher risk of conflict.

* The study finds no evidence of adaptation to climate-related conflict risk in Africa, with the sensitivity of conflict to temperature remaining high over time.

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Overall, the study suggests that climate change is likely to increase the risk of conflict in Africa, and that current levels of adaptation are insufficient to mitigate this risk.

[Disclaimer: Text generated by GPT@JRC using Generative AI technology and assessed by the KC-FNS Secretariat. For comprehensive information and context, please refer to the full document.]