Key findings: 

This publication presents the first macroeconomic scenario of a full transition to agroecology in 2050. It is for Andhra Pradesh, a state in southern India with 53 million inhabitants and 9.3 million farmers in 2020.  

The AgroEco2050 foresight process is based on the collective expertise and vision of a multistakeholder group that worked together in India from 2020 to 2022, as well as a unique statistical overview of past structural transformations from the 1970s to 2019 in India (in terms of land use, population, employment, sectoral economic growth, productivity).

One scenario focuses on intensification of the Industrial Agriculture model which is currently dominant worldwide, and the other on a full agroecological transition (AE) through natural farming (NF). The model Agribiom-India and its interface, which was developed and customized for this participative foresight exercise (B. Dorin, CIRAD) was used interactively by the group to test the coherence and adjust the assumptions made for both scenarios.

The "Community-managed Natural Farming" scenario is compared to an industrial food and agriculture intensification scenario to assess its performance in various areas such as employment, land use, food production, economic growth or income inequality. 

Land use: Cultivated land declines in the Industrial scenario with a focus on best irrigated land, while it increases in the Natural Farming scenario, through the regeneration and green cultivation of vast fallow areas, particularly in semi-arid areas through regenerative approaches. 

Population and unemployment: In the Industrial Agriculture scenario, with half the number of farmers of 2019, the unemployment rate remains at 30 percent. In the Natural Farming scenario with more farmers (10 million) unemployment decreases to 7 percent. 

Economic growth and inequality: The Natural Farming scenario involves a large area of land with many farmers producing diversified, nutritious, healthy food with low production costs and better market values, hence the agricultural GVA grows. In turn, the total GDP will increase, also thanks to less unemployment, less inequality, healthier and happier people than in an Industrial Agriculture scenario. 

Food yields and production: In Industrial Agriculture, food yield of few monocrops would follow past trends regardless of the costs for farmers, natural resources and consumer health, while in Natural Farming yield increase would be less, but much better balanced in macronutrients, richer in micronutrients and fibre, with zero chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides) and no antibiotics. Overall, the food production (yield* cultivated area) per capita would be significantly higher in Natural Farming than Industrial Agriculture.