Highlights:

With Ukraine fighting for life in the unprecedented attack onto its independence by RF, it is important to locate the expectations about its crop production on the map of global food supply and trade. The country is one of the leading wheat, corn, barley and sunflower seed commodities exporter in the world. In the last decade it supplied around 10% of the world wheat, 15% of corn and barley and more than 50% of the sunflower oil exports. Thus, the current Agricultural Outlook issue presents the long-term projections of the crop markets development in Ukraine, i.e., until 2050. As the RF’s war in Ukraine goes on, the Ukraine’s agricultural sector loses the resources for recovery. The financial and labor inputs are already stretched in 2023. According to the modelling results, some of the sectors will not reach the pre- war levels even after seven years of peace. With the market forces only, sunflower, barley and wheat sectors are expected to recover by 2040. By 2050, under the current world market trends and the destruction level brought by the war, maize, rye, oats and rapeseed sectors are expected to recover, wheat, barley and sunflower are expected to grow, whereas soya production seem to drop tremendously. This means that it may take as long as 20 years for Ukraine to regain its strength in agriculture after the devastation brought by the Russian military assault.

As the RF’s war in Ukraine goes on, the Ukraine’s agricultural sector loses the resources for recovery. The financial and labor inputs are already stretched in 2023. According to the modelling results, some of the sectors will not reach the pre- war levels even after seven years of peace. With the market forces only, sunflower, barley and wheat sectors are expected to recover by 2040. By 2050, under the current world market trends and the destruction level brought by the war, maize, rye, oats and rapeseed sectors are expected to recover, wheat, barley and sunflower are expected to grow, whereas soya production seem to drop tremendously. This means that it may take as long as 20 years for Ukraine to regain its strength in agriculture after the devastation brought by the Russian military assault.