Skip to main content
Knowledge4Policy
Knowledge for policy

Supporting policy with scientific evidence

We mobilise people and resources to create, curate, make sense of and use knowledge to inform policymaking across Europe.

Rethinking City Population Growth: How Reclassification Matters

  • Publication | 2024

City populations grow due to natural change, migration, and areas that are reclassified as part of a city. Because a time series of city boundaries was not available, most analyses ignore reclassification. This paper measures reclassification in a harmonized and transparent manner by applying a new harmonized definition of cities, towns, and rural areas, called the degree of urbanization, to gridded population data between 1980 and 2020. Ignoring reclassification would attribute city population growth equally to natural change and migration. Including the effects of reclassification reveals that two-thirds of the growth is due to natural change, followed by reclassification (29 percent), and the remainder to migration (4 percent). This demonstrates the importance of accounting for reclassification. It also underlines that discouraging migration to cities will not significantly reduce city population growth.

Privacy statements, terms and conditions.
You will be directed to the EU Login website where you can login/register as a user. Once connected, your credentials (First name, last name, username, email) will be registered in Knowledge4policy as part of your profile, which will allow you to get involved in all Knowledge4policy communities (help is available).

You are about to navigate to an external website. Please note that we are not responsible for its content.