A JRC report maps data and data sources for projecting healthcare workforce needs up to 2071.

EU healthcare systems are dealing with the difficult task of managing high patient demand and a declining workforce. This shortage has repercussions on patient care quality and the well-being of healthcare workers themselves. A mix of EU-level and national actions can leverage the single market to strengthen the sustainability of healthcare systems. 

In this context, JRC research aims to project the evolution of the number of healthcare professionals, in particular doctors and nurses. This approach takes into account the inflows and outflows of doctors and nurses through graduations from medical and nursing schools and universities, dropout, international migration and retirement. The project, entitled Supply ANd DEMand model for the healthcare workforce (SANDEM), explores the impact of current and future trends on the demand for healthcare workforce in the EU27 up to 2071.

As first step, a JRC Technical report looks into the data and data sources available for projecting healthcare workforce needs up to 2071. The report identifies Eurostat as primary source of information on the healthcare workforce stock, the graduates from medical and nursing schools and universities, the migration flows of doctors and nurses and the dropout and retirement rates due to its coverage of all 27 EU Member States. To deal with missing and incomplete data, JRC scientists use a cascade approach including alternative data sources, e.g. from WHO and OECD.

The report also maps data and data sources on population projections (Eurostat), disease prevalence (Global Burden of Disease Study), health service utilisation (European Health Interview Survey) and national expenditure for healthcare provision (ECFIN ageing report).

The mapping of the relevant data and data sources for EU healthcare workforce planning reveals that the main challenges are related to the lack of data on outflows of healthcare workforce from the labour market (e.g. through emigration, dropout, retirement). 

SANDEM enables to produce projections on the total number of nurses and doctors at national level. If data on specific health professionals for all EU Member States becomes available in the future, the breakdown of doctors and nurses by specialisation could be included to provide a more detailed picture. 

The reports highlights that multiple aspects and scenarios have to be taken into consideration and comparable data are required for a robust and forward-looking healthcare planning tool at EU level.
This technical report will be followed by a science for policy report presenting the results of the projections under different scenarios and their implications for EU policies.