Southern Africa. In most agricultural areas of southern Africa, summer crops are in the early stages of vegetative development. In mid November, there were delays in the start of the season in many areas of the region, more specifically in central and southern Angola, eastern Botswana, central Mozambique, eastern South Africa and most of Zambia and Zimbabwe. Below-average rangeland conditions are also observed in the aforementioned areas and in eastern Namibia. Although it is early in the season, and there is room for improvement, the situation should be closely monitored. According to a report from the Southern African Development Community and the Famine Early Warning System Network, critically low water levels at Kariba Dam have led to extensive load-shedding in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and this has disrupted irrigation, industrial activities and livelihoods. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast for December 2024 to February 2025 indicates average to above-average rainfall for most parts of the region. If this materialises, it will support planting activities and crop development. Below-average rainfall, however, is predicted for December 2024 to February 2025 in western and northern Angola, western Namibia and westernmost South Africa. According to the World Food Programme, there is a 60% chance of the La Niña phenomenon emerging between November 2024 and March 2025. This is likely to result in average to above-average rainfall in parts of the region, which would benefit agriculture, but there is also an increased risk of flooding, storms and tropical cyclones.

East Africa. Rainfall deficits in October-December season, as expected under La Niña ENSO conditions, are causing poor vegetation and rangeland conditions in Somalia, which also experienced poor agricultural outcomes in the previous season. Crop prospects are generally positive at harvesting time for the Meher season in Ethiopia and for the long rainy season in Kenya. In war-torn Sudan, abundant rainfall in July/August caused widespread floods, but also generally above-average vegetation performance except in some parts of the high-potential areas in Al Jazeera, Sennar and White Nile where shorter than usual crop cycles can be observed. Overall, it remains difficult to assess the impact of the conflict on production in Sudan due to the scarcity of information. Vegetation conditions have improved in the eastern parts of Burundi and Rwanda thanks to abundant rainfall in November and after a delayed start of the A season. Nearly 35 million people in six member states of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda) are in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) phase 3 or worse, with 21 million people in Sudan alone being affected by food insecurity. Out of these 35 million, 26 million are in ‘crisis’ (IPC phase 3), 9 million are in ‘emergency’ conditions (IPC phase 4), and 150 000 people are in ‘catastrophe’ (IPC phase 5). A further 37 million people, excluding those in Ethiopia, are classified as being in ‘stressed’ conditions (IPC phase 2) and need continuous assistance to avoid them falling to worse-off IPC phases. The need for humanitarian assistance in the region therefore remains high.

West and central Africa. The harvest of main-season crops in the region is complete and production prospects are generally positive thanks to average to above-average rainfall, which supported agropastoral conditions in much of the region. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, although the rainy season is coming to an end, the effects of floods across the region are still ongoing, with the total number of people affected by flooding in West and central Africa now reaching 7.2 million. Furthermore, according to the same report, floods have also affected 960 000 hectares of cropland and caused the loss of 128 000 head of cattle in 2024. Although floods have caused crop losses and conflict has impeded agricultural activities’, cereal production is preliminarily forecast at 76.5 million tonnes, slightly above the 5-year average (Food and Agricultural Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, ‘Crop prospects and food situation’, November 2024). However, production shortfalls are expected in Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Nigeria. The second maize season is progressing well in the Gulf of Guinea thanks to the average to above-average cumulative rainfall received in the last month. The second-season maize in the southern bimodal areas is expected to be harvested between late 2024 and early 2025. Pastoral conditions are generally good across the region, and good livestock production is expected. However, pasture development was below average in southern Côte d’Ivoire, north-western Nigeria and northern and southern Sierra Leone.

Middle East and North Africa. In the Middle East, the sowing of winter wheat and barley is under way under average agroclimatic conditions, except in central Iran, where drier- and warmer-than-average conditions prevailed in the last month. The rice harvest has finalised in Iran and is nearing completion in southern Iraq, with average (Fars and Gilan in Iran; Qadisiya in Iraq) to above-average (Khuzestan and Mazandaran in Iran; Najaf in Iraq) prospects. In Yemen, the harvest of sorghum and wheat is close to completion, with good prospects thanks to abundant rainfall in July and August, which resulted in above-average crop biomass. However, food insecurity continues to affect 17 million people out of the country’s population of 30 million as a result of the conflict and the poor socioeconomic conditions. In Maghreb, the sowing of winter wheat and barley is under way in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia under mixed moisture conditions; overall, crop biomass is close to average in the three countries, except in western and south-east Algeria, the south-west (Doukkala and Marrakech) and north-east (Oriental) of Morocco, and the north-west (Le Kef) and north (Bizerte) of Tunisia, where crop biomass is below-average as a result of delayed sowings or below-average rainfall. It is the start of the winter cereals season and drier-than-average conditions are expected to persist until the end of April 2025, according to the Copernicus C3S multimodel seasonal rainfall forecast.

Central and South Asia. In central Asia (southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), the sowing of winter wheat and barley was finalised under favourable conditions. In Afghanistan, the sowing of winter wheat was finalised under close-to-average moisture conditions, but drier-than-average conditions are forecast in the coming months. The harvesting of rice was finalised in November with good prospects thanks to above-average crop biomass across the country. Acute food insecurity, however, continues to affect one person in two as a result of the economic and social crises. In South Asia, the harvesting of kharif crops (rice, maize, millet) is close to completion in Pakistan, with good prospects; the harvesting of aman rice (which represents about 35% of total production) has started in Bangladesh, with good prospects as well, thanks to above-average crop biomass. In Sri Lanka, the planting of main-season maha rice and maize is finalising under slightly below-average moisture conditions.

South-East and eastern Asia. The region is no longer monitored by Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production (ASAP). If specifically requested, an ad hoc analysis can be conducted for any country in the region (please contact us by email: JRC-ASAP@ec.europa.eu). ASAP continues to monitor only North Korea, where the sowing of winter wheat and barley was finalised under favourable moisture and temperature conditions.

Latin America and the Caribbean islands. In Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti and Peru, ongoing harvests have favourable prospects, with average to above-average vegetation conditions observed in most cropland. In El Salvador and Nicaragua, the harvesting of postrera crops has started; however, in western El Salvador and southern Nicaragua, harvest prospects are poor. Crops in the sowing and early vegetation stages in Bolivia, Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua are developing as usual, thanks to average rainfall in most cropland regions in the last month. However, the planted area in Bolivia may have dropped to below average due to the higher costs of inputs, among other reasons. In Cuba, below-average rainfall conditions are expected until the end of January. In several key grain-producing departments in Colombia (Tolima and Valle del Cauca) and Peru (Cajamarca and San Martín), large areas of cropland have been affected by poor vegetation conditions due to below-average rainfall in the last month or delays caused by poor rainfall at the onset of the cycle. The Copernicus C3S multimodel forecasts average to above-average rainfall conditions for the two countries until the end of January, which could help improve conditions in the abovementioned areas.