Skip to main content

Supporting policy with scientific evidence

We mobilise people and resources to create, curate, make sense of and use knowledge to inform policymaking across Europe.

Dataset | 22 February 2022

Western Balkans Annual Risk Analysis

The WB-ARA (Western Balkans Annual Risk Analysis) is structured around the following elements: (1) a description of the general context in which border controls at common borders occur; (2) annual risk assessment; which includes identification and detailed description of the main risks affecting both the area of the Western Balkans and Member States or Schengen Associated Countries; (3) outlook and mitigating actions summary; which take into account relevant EU policy developments.

The statistical annex of the WB-ARA includes summary tables describing the key indicators of irregular migration in detail.

The core of monthly statistical data from WB-RAN (Western Balkans Risk Analysis Network) and neighbouring FRAN (Frontex Risk Analysis Network) countries (only common borders) is focused on six key indicators of illegal migration: (1) detections of illegal border-crossing; (2) detections of fa cilitators; (3) detections of illegal stay; (4) refusals of entry; (5) asylum applications; and (6) detections of false documents. In addition to this core data set; other data available to Frontex were also used. Those include data of the European Union Document-Fraud Risk Analysis Network (EDF); Turkey-Frontex Risk Analysis Network (TU-RAN) and reporting from different Joint Operations coordinated by Frontex. Importantly; as agreed by all WB-RAN members; Kosovo* Border Police was invited to participate in the work of the network (starting from 2014).

Many other qualitative and quantitative sources were also used; in particular; bimonthly and quarterly analytical reports of both Member States and WB-RAN countries; Frontex reporting in the context of the Post Visa-Liberalisation Monitoring Mechanism and analysis presented in the Frontex Risk Analysis for 2016 (ARA 2016).